- Lithuania views Russia as an ongoing threat due to decades of Soviet occupation and its recent expansionist policies.
- Lithuania is increasing its defense budget to 6% of GDP, surpassing NATO’s standard 2% requirement.
- Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė argues that diplomacy alone is ineffective, advocating for military strength in Russia negotiations.
- Lithuania was an early adopter of energy independence from Russia, reducing economic leverage Moscow had over Europe.
- NATO burden-sharing remains a key issue, with Lithuania urging its allies to increase defense spending against Russian aggression.
Lithuania’s Cautious Approach to Russia
Lithuania has a long and painful history with Russia, dating back to five decades of Soviet occupation, during which it struggled for freedom and faced relentless oppression. Under Soviet rule, Lithuanians endured mass deportations, suppression of national identity, and restrictions on religious practices—a reality that still shapes national policy today. Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė embodies this personal and historical struggle, as her family was directly impacted by Soviet repression. These deep scars shape Lithuania’s stance on security and make it one of the most skeptical nations when it comes to Russia negotiations.
Lithuania’s Perspective: Why Russia Can’t Be Trusted
For Lithuania, distrust of Russia isn’t paranoia—it’s history. Šakalienė frequently emphasizes Russia’s pattern of breaking international agreements and pursuing territorial expansion. 
From the Soviet invasions of Eastern Europe to the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia has consistently disregarded diplomatic agreements. Most recently, its full-scale invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated a disregard for international law. Šakalienė asserts, “Russia has never honored an agreement unless it was forced to,” arguing that peace can only be maintained through military strength, not just diplomacy.
Countries that have previously trusted negotiations with Russia—including Ukraine and Georgia—have paid the price, facing military aggression despite diplomatic assurances of peace.
Lithuania’s Growing Military Preparedness
Faced with a hostile neighbor, Lithuania is bolstering its national defense at an unprecedented rate.
- Defense Budget Surge: Lithuania is raising its defense spending to 6% of GDP, far exceeding NATO’s 2% guideline and surpassing some of the world’s largest military powers in relative spending.
- Strategic Geography: Lithuania shares a 184-mile border with the Russian exclave Kaliningrad and a 420-mile border with Belarus, where Russian forces are stationed. This critical positioning necessitates robust defenses.
- Military Training & Equipment: Lithuania has invested in anti-air systems, combat drones, and enhanced NATO cooperation exercises to ensure readiness in case of an attack.
This buildup comes amid NATO-wide discussions on whether all member nations should be contributing more to defense spending. Several nations, particularly in Western Europe, still lag behind—something Lithuania finds concerning.
NATO’s Crucial Role in Lithuania’s Security Strategy
For smaller nations like Lithuania, NATO membership is vital. Unlike major military powers such as the U.S. or Germany, Lithuania relies on collective defense agreements for security.
However, NATO’s response to rising Russian aggression has been uneven across member nations. While Eastern European members like Poland and the Baltics have significantly increased their defense budgets, many Western European countries resist raising their contributions.
Šakalienė recently stated, “The old standard of 2% GDP for defense is outdated. NATO allies must commit more if we want real security.” Indeed, maintaining stability on NATO’s eastern flank will require stronger, more unified military contributions across all member states.
Trump’s Influence on NATO and Lithuanian Defense
Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s calls for increased NATO spending have had a lasting impact on European military policy. His demand for burden-sharing was initially met with skepticism, but for Lithuania, it was a wake-up call.
Šakalienė acknowledges that while some countries disliked Trump’s blunt rhetoric, his position reflected geopolitical realities
- More military investment is needed across NATO to deter Russian aggression.
- The U.S. should not be the sole financial backbone of NATO’s military readiness.
- Sanctions and tougher negotiation stances are an essential deterrent against Russia’s violations.
Trump also threatened harsh sanctions on Russia for violating ceasefire terms, a stance Lithuania strongly supports. Šakalienė argues that any compromise with Russia should have severe consequences if broken—a lesson learned from past agreements that Moscow ignored.
China’s Growing Role in Global Conflict
While Russia is Lithuania’s most immediate threat, China’s involvement in the Ukrainian conflict has raised new security concerns. Intelligence reports indicate that China supplies Russia with crucial military materials, indirectly sustaining its war efforts.
Lithuania, being a country that broke diplomatic ties with Beijing after supporting Taiwan, views this issue with added urgency. A strong Russia benefits China’s geopolitical goals, allowing it to extend influence while Western nations remain distracted.
For Lithuania and NATO allies, securing both European and Indo-Pacific stability is becoming a key defense priority.
Lithuania’s Hardening Stance on Arms Treaties
Confronting a direct threat from its eastern neighbor, Lithuania is reevaluating its arms limitations under international treaties.
Recently, the country withdrew from the Convention on Cluster Munitions, a disarmament treaty restricting the use of certain heavy weaponry. Šakalienė defended this move, stating
“Russia isn’t following the treaties—so why should we limit our own defenses?”
This suggests that Lithuania is prepared to deploy all necessary measures to protect itself if attacked. Similarly, there are discussions about withdrawing from the Ottawa Convention, which bans landmines—another controversial defense measure under review.
Energy Independence: Lithuania’s Fight Against Russian Influence
Lithuania was among the first European countries to completely sever ties with Russia’s energy supply.
- It established an LNG terminal named “Independence,” breaking free from reliance on Russian gas.
- It helped neighboring countries like Latvia and Poland transition away from Russian energy dependence.
- While other EU nations struggled to reduce Russian gas consumption, Lithuania was completely independent by 2022.
This move underscores Lithuania’s belief that economic detachment from Russia is as crucial as military readiness in safeguarding national security.
Russia’s War on Religion in Eastern Europe
Beyond military and economic aggression, Russia has been accused of waging a cultural-religious war across Eastern Europe.
During the Soviet era, churches were destroyed, clergy were imprisoned, and practicing religion was seen as rebellion. Šakalienė argues that this repression continues today under a different guise.
Russia’s targeting of churches and religious communities in Ukraine has raised concerns among Baltic states about a broader attempt to erase national and religious identity. Lithuania sees these actions as further proof that Moscow’s aggression extends beyond borders into cultural domination attempts.
Lithuania’s Final Warning: Prepare for Ongoing Russian Aggression
Šakalienė leaves little room for optimism about Russia’s intentions. She warns
Diplomatic agreements mean nothing unless backed by military deterrence.
The West must abandon the illusion that Putin’s regime will respect treaties.
Any negotiations with Russia must come with strong, enforceable consequences if breached.
Lithuania’s historical experience shows that relying solely on diplomacy is a dangerous mistake. With NATO still divided on defense funding and some nations reluctant to increase military preparedness, Lithuania urges its allies to act now—before it’s too late.
Citations
- North Atlantic Treaty Organization. (2023). NATO Secretary General urges members to increase defense spending beyond 2% GDP.
- European Defense Review. (2024). Lithuania increases defense expenditures to 6% GDP, exceeding NATO minimums.
- Global Security Studies. (2024). China’s supply chain connections to Russian military production exposed in international intelligence reports.
- European Energy Policy Journal. (2023). Impact of Russian energy dependence on EU member nations.
- Human Rights Quarterly. (2022). The historical role of the Soviet Union in suppressing religious freedoms in Eastern Europe.
Lithuania is setting an example of proactive defense readiness—but will NATO allies follow its lead? Let us know your thoughts below!
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